At how much volume can the Litecoin blockchain be considered congested?

We would need 1MB blocks to reach a congestion state where blocks are full. This 1MB would need to be reached every approx 2.5mins. So in theory, this means Litecoin can support a maximum of 12.2K segwit transactions every block (every 2.5 mins).

With lightning this number will be greatly increased by a factor of 1000+.

What do you think?