I would like to share some thoughts about this impact. Comments are welcomed!
https://bitcoinvalueresearch.substack.com/p/the-impact-of-retail-investors-on
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Have you written that article? I will share my thoughts regarding it. In order to soften the blow, I’ll say that I think it’s wholly incorrect. But the thing that I actually want to say is “this article is utter bullshit”.
The hype surrounding popstar CEOs like Elon Musk might have driven fools into purchasing Bitcoin, but that is simply enabling those that want to get rid of Bitcoin to cash out. The bull market will die as quickly as it was born, and revive again in the next hype with the next cattle cart full of pigs to be slaughtered.
Graphs are mostly meaningless when studying the behavior of cryptocurrencies. If nobody accepts a cryptocurrency as settlement for payment, the currency is useless. I want to stay away from hyped cryptocurrencies as far as possible.
I bought cryptocurrency out of desperation, probably like the ones in Nigeria. Your article doesn’t mention this at all, which is probably the strongest reason for getting cryptocurrency (but getting rid of it as soon as the money crosses the border). Holding a currency is related to the belief that the purchasing power of that currency will be preserved.
The value of a cryptocurrency comes from the society that backs it. The first paragraph of the following text tells the cryptocurrency contract between holders and sellers, and hype is a violation of that contract.
Hello Frederico, I got your point. I wrote about it in the previous article. https://bitcoinvalueresearch.substack.com/p/litecoin-valuation
This article was about timing as it still important for crypto in their way to become less volatile currencies.
I have read that other article, and the opinion is the same. You don’t get the reasons for getting and holding cryptocurrency. If you don’t understand the reasons, you don’t understand the evaluation.
You don’t understand how bad players with big amounts of money can manipulate the market with pump-and-dumps. You don’t understand why I have the priority of warding off these bad players from the cryptocurrency I hold.
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Ok you have your view, I have mine and that is fine. Respect for different perspectives comes in the first place.
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Well, I’ve been HODL’ing BTC and LTC since 2013…and am retired on crypto…so you may be right on manipulation on ebbs and flows…but check out the stock to flow model link below.
since July 2020 my assets have gone up 4.85 times the price they were then so manipulation or not HODL’ing has been berry, berry good to me!
whereas it refers to BTC it seems that the altcoins and LTC follow…but the above is dead on now…
myself? I expect a good maybe as much as 50% crash in the price for all altcoins/BTC/LTC then the usual comeback to say 30% under the ATH…of whatever crypto you may prefer and then maybe it will stay down around 30% down from ATH till the next halving of BTC or LTC or whatever…just as I suspect at the same time when the ‘reality’ of the world hits after trump with pandemic and economy and inflation hits the world…and there is gonna be a bit of ‘suck it up’ till things resolve from all such.
This indeed is ‘somewhat’ manipulation by whales and may get even ‘weirder’ as institutions have to now deal with the volatility and have no concept of HODL’ing…times get rough and an institution that made 3x the money no LTC/BTC will dump it all…to show a profit and for the folks employed there to call it a win and keep their bonus…post hast…if you want to call that manipulation also…compared to f HODL’ers of the past of BTC/LTC/Crypto was to dump say 30% along with my view of pretty much everything doing so as the ‘reality’ of the pandemic and the economic causes kick in…well…BTC/LTC/Crypto will always dump first probably as much as 50% if the stock market corrects to 30% as I suspect…simply because crypto markets are 24/7 and panics will hit them harder…
but essentially…I think ‘everything’ is going to take a 30% hit …the stock market correction and BTC/LTC/rCypto and property …you name it…with all the last 4 years of the Trump Administration making light of the USA pandemic and its economic consequences and also international concerns…and essentially running all its agencies on auto mode…well…IMHO reality is gonna hit and everything is gonna adjust…even if all the spending is needed…and legit in hindsight by economic types and history types in the future on review…that still is a lot of debt to chew through.
the question of BTC/LTC/Crypto HODL’ing then comes into play. Why HODL?
In my case with state taxes and the 15% under 440k or some such cap gains 3.8% on top of that (has to do with land…which BTC is treated as on profits) and my state’s tax rate…it comes out to 28.65% for me to sell btc/ltc/crypto…or xfer from one crypto to another on cap gains.
So I’d set aside any cash for LTC/BTC/Crypto I sold by say 30% to be safe for the nice tax folk…I’d then put it in the stock market in a ‘balanced’ account at 60% bonds (my age) and then what? Watch the stock market dump 30% on top of my already 30% tax set aside…so down 60% just to watch BTC/LTC/Crypto gold at ‘worst’ (also 30% down) go sideways or up? Seems dubious…I may diversify
someday in the future but now sure ain’t a great time to do so…with all this uncertainty in play.
Now is not the time to invest in traditional stocks…no matter your view on BTC/LTC/Crypto. It is likely that bonds will not beat inflation in the next 7-10 years…if banks can’t fail…no risk…if no risk no interest bond returns on interest is about as dangerous as your savings account interest gained…if assuming I am correct about a correction of 30% on everything…then you have gold that probably at best will be sideways…so there ya are
so yeah…it will be manipulated by whales LTC and also same will start to happen as institutions get involved in crypto as an inflation hedge…until such point as the amount of LTC/BTC/Crypto via adoption evens out in some manner…at this rate it could be well above 100k with the amount of HODL in the world of existing crypto…also do you really think and economy ‘before’ the pandemic hit is gonna be able to sustain 70% of the economy on ‘consumer spending’ anymore? Not likely.
We are still in the adoption phase…there are 45 million millionaires in the world and 2550 or so billionaires in the world …so it could get really really weird if they see crypto and LTC and BTC as
an inflation hedge for the next 7-10 years vs bitcoin as a replacement to gold or property or bonds.
Sh*t in 5 years the price of all BTC/LTC/Crypto could go up 3x, 5x, or 10x again
Also, even though it likely won’t work, there will be gov’t push back on BTC/LTC/Crypto carving a niche out of gold or the dollar for reserve currency…it likely will fail…but may also drive the price down thru that kinda manipulation as well
we probably have seen nothing yet in the ‘ecstasy’ nor the ‘pain’ highs and lows yet.
hey …at least it is ‘interesting’
brad
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Great point. I think interest rate will be low for a long time and this will support crypto prices in the medium term.
Thanks for the article. I like that litecoin is a bit more focused on being useful, that is, easier to use for goods and services.
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