And we are getting there

From the Twitter account of C Lee

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Based on the response satoshilite and xinxi received from the big mining pools, I’ll take a guess and say that you’ll see the “Segwit current miner support” metric ramp way up once signaling begins on January 28th.

Just for fun, after signaling begins, how long does everyone think it will take to reach the required 75%?

I’ll say less than 72 hours hours, since I expect F2Pool and the other big dogs to immediately begin signaling segwit support. So “By the end of the day January 31st” is my official guess.

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For how long / how many blocks does it need to stay above 75% to make it a fact?

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That will teach me to forget details…I thought each ‘phase’ was around 800 blocks but it’s actually 8,064 blocks. I guess I need to tack another day or two onto my guess!

I’ll go with super-majority by Feb 2 and activated(required) by Feb 5.

Ignore 1 January 2017 of course as it was changed to 28 January 2017

+Activation for the segwit soft fork is being managed using
+BIP9. At the beginning of the first retarget period after
+segwit’s start date of 1 January 2017 miners can update the Litecoin
+client to Litecoin Core 0.13.2 to signal for segwit support. When a
+super-majority of 75% is reached segwit is activated by optional, and
+if 75% of blocks within a 8,064-block retarget period (about 3.5 days)
+signal support for segwit, after another 8,064 blocks, segwit will
+be required.


Thanks cxop for the illumination :slight_smile:

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And by the way, I dont want to bet against you :slight_smile:

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